KAO Papa

PhD student in Agricultural economics of university of Lomé (ESA/UL)

In this paper, we develop a theoretical model to simultaneously describe the adoption of improved seed technology and the climate risk perception capacity of farmers facing production risks and incomplete information about the new technology. The adoption condition is derived from the assumptions of upstream climate risk perception and downstream farmer risk aversion, and assuming that uncertainty can arise from two sources: the randomness of climatic conditions and the uncertainty of future returns associated with the use of the new technology. We estimate a reduced form of this model through the Heckman selection probit using a sample of 545 plots distributed in the five regions of Togo. The estimation procedure is developed in two steps. In the first step, we estimate the first four moments of the benefit distribution and in the second step, we incorporate these estimated moments into the model of technology adoption and climate risk perception. We find that risk plays a central role in farmers' decisions, first through the direct effect of its perception and second through sampling moments of the yield distribution in the adoption model.

Risk, perception, technological adoption.

1) Antle, J. 1983. "Testing the Stochastic Structure of Production: A Flexible Moment-Based Approach." Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 1:192-201. --. 1987. "Econometric Estimation of Producers' Risk Attitudes." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 69:509-22.

2) Apata, T.G. (2010) "Effects of global climate change on Nigerian Agriculture: An empirical analysis", Paper presented at the 84th annual conference of Agricultural Economics Society held in Edinburgh, Scotland, p 345351.

3) Asfaw Solomon (2013), "Adaptation to Climate Change and Food Security: Micro-evidence from Malawi", Invited paper presented at the 4th International Conference of the African Association of Agricultural Economists, September 22-25, 2013, Hammamet, Tunisia.

4) Boris Odilon Kounagbe Lokonon et al, 2019 The potential impact of climate change on agriculture in West Africa: A bio-economicmodeling approach, Climate

5) Change Economics, doi: 10.1142/S2010007819500155 Dinar, A., Hassan, R., Mendelsohn, R., and Benhin J. (eds). (2008), Climate Change and Agriculture in Africa: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies, London: Earth Scan.

6) Egbendewe, A. Y. G., Lokonon, B. K., Naga, C. Atewamba, C. (2016), Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Trade and Food Security in ECOWAS. United Nations University Institute for Natural Resources in Africa. UNU-INRA, 2016, p 1.

7) Gbetibouo, G.A. (2009), "Understanding farmers' perceptions and adaptations to climate change and variability: The case of the Limpopo Basin, South Africa". Environment and Production Technology Division. IFPRI Discussion Paper 00849. 2009. Washington (DC) IFPRI, www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ifpridp0084 9.pdf.

8) Gnanglè C.P., Glèlè Kakaï,R. Assogbadjo,A.E., Vodounou, S., Yabi,J. A. and Sokpon, N, (2011), Past climate trends, modeling, perceptions and local adaptations in Benin. Climatology, vol. 8 (2011).

9) Huffman, W.E., and S. Mercier. 1991. "Joint Adoption of Microcomputer Technologies: An Analysis of Farmers' Decision." Review of Economics and Statistics 73:541-46.

10) Kihlstrom, R.E. 1976. "Firm Demand for Information About Price and Technology." Journal of Political Economy 84:1335-41.

11) Kim, K., and J.P. Chavas. 2003. "Technological Change and Risk Management: An Application to the Economics of Corn Production." Agricultural Economics 29:125-42.

12) Kurukulasuriya, P. and Mendelsohn, R. (2006) "A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on African crop land", Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa (CEEPA), Discussion Paper n°8, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa.

13) Maddison D, (2007), The perception and adaptation to climate change in Africa. Policy Research Working Paper WPS4308. Washington (DC): The World Bank, Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural and Urban Development Team; 2007. www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB /2007/08/06/000158349_ 20070806150940/Ren dered/PDF/wps4308.pdf.

14) Mustapha SB, Sanda AH, Shehu H. (2012), Farmers' perception of climate change in central agricultural zone of Borno State, Nigeria. Journal of Environment and Earth Science,2 (11): 21-27.

15) Rashid, H. and Nhemachena, C. (2008), "Determinants of African farmers' strategies foradapting to climate change: Multinomial choice analysis"; AfJARE 2(1), March 2008.River State-Nigeria", Journal of Sustainable Development; 7:2; 2014.

16) Yegbemey RN, Yabi JA, Aïhounton GB, Paraïso A, (2014), Simultaneous modeling of climate change perception and adaptation: the case of maize farmers in Northern Benin (West Africa). Cah Agric 23: 17787. doi: 10.1684/agr.2014.0697.

17) Yesuf, M., Di Falco, S. Deressa, T. Ringler, C. and Kohlin, G. (2008), "The Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation on Food Production in Low-Income Countries: Evidence from Nile Basin, Ethiopia", International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Discussion Paper, 00828.

Volume 05 Issue 02 February 2022