¹Rosyadi, ²Pierre Johnathan Hutagaol, ³Windhu Putra

^1,2,3Faculty of Economic & Business, Tanjungpura University, Indonesia

This study aims to determine the effect of Foreign Debt (X1) and Net Exports (X2) which describe exports and imports on the movement of the Rupiah exchange rate (IDR) against the US Dollar (USD) (Y1) and economic growth (Y2) in Indonesia throughout 1988-2019. This study uses multiple linear regression analysis using path analysis to determine the direct or indirect effect. The results showed that simultaneously, all dependent variables had a significant effect on the exchange rate (Y1) and economic growth (Y2). While partially, Foreign Debt (X1) and Net Exports (X2) have a positive and significant effect on the Exchange Rate (Y2). Foreign Debt (X1) has a positive and significant effect on Economic Growth (Y2), Net Exports (X2) have a positive and no significant effect on Economic Growth (Y2), and the Exchange Rate (Y1) has a significant and negative effect on Economic Growth (Y2). Based on path analysis, Foreign Debt (X1) and Net Exports (X2) show a stronger direct effect on Economic Growth (Y2), compared to the indirect effect through the exchange rate mediating variable (Y1).

Foreign Debt, Net Exports, Exchange Rates and Economic Growth.

1) Alwandi, M. A., & Muchlisoh, S. (2021). KARAKTERISTIK PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN SEKTOR BASIS PROVINSI DI INDONESIA PADA MASA PANDEMI COVID-19. Seminar Nasional Official Statistics, 2020(1). https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2020i1.516

2) Apridar. (2009). Ekonomi internasional: sejarah, teori, konsep dan permasalahan dalam aplikasinya. Graha Ilmu.

3) Asbiantari, D. R., Hutagaol, M. P., & Asmara, A. (2018). PENGARUH EKSPOR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA. JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN, 5(2). https://doi.org/10.29244/jekp.5.2.2016.10-31

4) Astuti, I. P., & Ayuningtyas, F. J. (2018). PENGARUH EKSPOR DAN IMPOR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA. Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan, 19(1). https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.19.1.3836

5) Bearce, D. H., & Tirone, D. C. (2010). Foreign aid effectiveness and the strategic goals of donor governments. Journal of Politics, 72(3). https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381610000204

6) Bhattarai, B. P. (2008). Foreign Aid and Growth in Nepal: An Empirical Analysis. The Journal of Developing Areas, 42(2). https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.0.0026

7) Creswell, J. W. (2009). Research design : qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods approaches. In Intercultural Education (Vol. 3, Issue 2). https://doi.org/10.1080/14675980902922143

8) Dizaji, M., & Badri, A. K. (2014). The Effect of Exports on Employment in Iran’s Economy. In Merit Research Journal of Art, Social Science and Humanities (Vol. 2, Issue 6, pp. 81–88). http://www.meritresearchjournals.org/assh/index.htm

9) Fatmawati, R. Y. (2015). Analisis Pengaruh Perdagangan Internasional dan Utang Luar Negeri Terhadap Gross Domestic Product Indonesia. Jesp, 7(1).

10) Fauziah, E. S., & Khoerulloh, A. K. (2020). Pengaruh Ekspor dan Impor Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dengan Kurs Sebagai Variabel Intervening. Khazanah Sosial, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.15575/ks.v2i1.8191

11) Fitriani, E. (2019). ANALISIS PENGARUH PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA. JURISMA : Jurnal Riset Bisnis & Manajemen, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.34010/jurisma.v9i1.1414

12) Ismanto, B., Kristiani, M. A., & Rina, L. (2019). Pengaruh Kurs dan Impor Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Periode Tahun 2007-2017. Jurnal Ecodunamika, 2(1).

13) Karagol, E. (n.d.). External Debt and Economic Growth Relationship Using the Simultaneous Equations.

14) Khair, M., & Rusydi, B. U. (2016). Analisis Pengaruh Utang Luar Negeri (Foreign Debt) Dan Penanaman Modal Asing (Pma) Terhadap Nilai Produk Domestik Bruto (Pdb) Indonesia. Economics, Sosial, and Development, 3(1).

15) Kholis, M. (2012). DAMPAK FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA; Studi Makroekonomi Dengan Penerapan Data Panel. Jurnal Organisasi Dan Manajemen, 8(2). https://doi.org/10.33830/jom.v8i2.260.2012

16) Kuncoro, M. (2010). Dasar-dasar ekonomika pembangunan (5th ed.). UPP STIM YKPN.

17) Lin, C. I. (1996). Processing and exporting raw materials: A computable general equilibrium analysis of the Indonesian log and plywood industries. Canadian Journal of Development Studies, 17(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/02255189.1996.9669637

18) Mankiw, N. G. (2012). Principles of Economics. In South-Western Cengage Learning. South-Western Cengage Learning. https://books.google.com/books/about/Principles_of_Economics.html?hl=id&id=7yDjtgAACAAJ

19) Metwally, M. M., & Tamaschke, R. (1994). The foreign debt problem of North African countries. Savings & Development/African Review of Money Finance & Banking, 1–2.

20) Mustika, C., Umiyati, E., & Achmad, E. (2015). Analisi Pengaruh Ekspor Neto Terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Dolar Amerika Serikat dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Indonesia. Jurnal Paradigma Ekonomika, 10(2).

21) Obstfeld, M. (2001). International Macroeconomics: Beyond the Mundell-Fleming Model, by Maurice Obstfeld, IMF Staff Papers Vol. 47, Special Issue, 2001.

22) Pridayanti, A. (2013). Pengaruh Ekspor, Impor, dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Indonesia Periode 2002-2012. Jurnal Ekonomi & Kebijakan Publik, 12(05).

23) Putra, M. D. K., & Sulasmiyatii, S. (2018). Pengaruh Penanaman Modal Asing Utang Luar Negeri Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia (Studi pada Bank Indonesia Periode Kuartal IV 2008 – 2017). Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis (JAB), 58(2).

24) Quazi, R. M. (2005). Effects of Foreign Aid on GDP Growh and Fiscal Behavior: An Econometric Case Study of Bangladesh. The Journal of Developing Areas, 38(2), 95–117. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4192977

25) Ramanayake, S. S., & Lee, K. (2015). Does openness lead to sustained economic growth? Export growth versus other variables as determinants of economic growth. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 20(3). https://doi.org/10.1080/13547860.2015.1054164

26) Rifin, A. (2010). The Effect of Export Tax on Indonesia’s Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Export Competitiveness. Asean Economic Bulletin, 27(2). https://doi.org/10.1355/ae27-2b

27) Saheed, Z. S., Sani, I. E., & Idakwoji, B. O. (2015). Impact of Public External Debt on Exchange Rate in Nigeria. International Finance and Banking, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.5296/ifb.v2i1.7734

28) Salvatore, D. (1990). Introduction to International Economics (4th ed.). MacMillan Publishing Company.

29) Samnang, D. (2004). Pengaruh utang luar negeri terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Kamboja: Tahun 1982-2002. https://repository.ugm.ac.id/62412/

30) Sedyaningrum, M., Suhadak, S., & Nuzula, N. (2016). Pengaruh Jumlah Nilai Ekspor, Impor dan Perumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Nilai Tukar dan Daya Beli Masyarakat di Indonesia. Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis S1 Universitas Brawijaya, 34(1).

31) Sugiharti, L., Purwono, R., & Esquivias, M. A. (2020). Analysis of determinants of Indonesian agricultural exports. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 7(4). https://doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2020.7.4(8)

32) Sukirno, S. (1978). Ekonomi Pembangunan: Proses, Masalah, dan Dasar Kebijakan. In e-conversion - Proposal for a Cluster of Excellence.

33) Todaro, M., & Smith, S. C. (2011). Economic Development - 12th Edition. In Pearson Education, Inc.

34) Wulandari, L., & Zuhri, S. (2019). Pengaruh Perdagangan Internasional Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Tahun 2007-2017. Jurnal REP (Riset Ekonomi Pembangunan), 4(2), 1–189. https://doi.org/10.31002/rep.v4i2.781

35) Yazid, M. (2018). Inflasi, KURS, Dan Suku Bunga Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi. Jurnal EKOMBIS, 1(1).

36) Yudiarti, T., & Mustika, C. (2018). Pengaruh utang luar negeri , tingkat suku bunga dan neraca transaksi berjalan terhadap nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar Amerika Serikat. E-Jurnal Perdagangan, Industri Dan Moneter, 6(1).

Volume 05 Issue 07 July 2022

There is an Open Access article, distributed under the term of the Creative Commons Attribution – Non Commercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits remixing, adapting and building upon the work for non-commercial use, provided the original work is properly cited.